the data diary

The final pre-election forecast gives Kamala Harris a >99% chance of beating Donald Trump in New Jersey.

Presidential probabilities

Each day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races. Each candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.

Forecasted election-day voteshare

The model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse. It then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.

State similarities

The model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another. Similar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.

Sources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com

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